Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle could be early winners of SEC's tokenized-stock push, analysts say

CoinDesk reports that the SEC's five-year innovation exemption creates a path for tokenized U.S. stocks to trade through automated market makers on public blockchains. Goldman Sachs and Citizens analysts identify Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle as early beneficiaries if more U.S. securities move onchain under the new framework.

Coinbase: custody, tokenization, and stablecoin distribution

Goldman Sachs said Coinbase could benefit across several business lines. Its tokenized-equity offering already carries many SEC-required features, including shareholder rights and dividends comparable with the underlying stock. CEO Brian Armstrong said this week that voting rights are "coming soon," a key piece in matching token holders to traditional investors. Coinbase also runs an institutional custody business and Coinbase Tokenize, which provides infrastructure for other firms putting assets onchain.

Citizens analysts highlighted Coinbase's reach across custody, tokenized assets, stablecoins, and its Ethereum-based blockchain Base. One hurdle remains if Coinbase wants to run a trading venue directly under the exemption: its exchanges use central limit order books, while the SEC framework is built around automated market makers. Goldman noted Coinbase would need new infrastructure or could route activity through AMM-based decentralized exchanges, such as protocols on Base.

Robinhood: offshore tokens don't fit the SEC framework

Robinhood could also benefit, though its current offshore stock tokens fall outside the exemption. Those products provide price exposure to U.S. shares through a derivative without conveying the full ownership rights the framework requires. Goldman analysts said Robinhood would need additional product development to offer a compliant version in the U.S. The issue flared this month when AMC Entertainment's CEO criticized Robinhood for offering AMC-linked stock tokens without the company's approval.

The SEC's new framework gives issuers the right to object before third-party tokenized versions of their shares can begin trading. Citizens analysts expect Robinhood to move quickly given the traction of its tokenized-equity offering outside the U.S. and its broader push around its Arbitrum-based Robinhood Chain. CEO Vlad Tenev already signaled this week that more shareholder features, including share redemptions and voting rights, will be added to the stock tokens.

Circle: settlement and collateral demand

More tokenized securities trading could drive demand for tokenized cash. Both Goldman and Citizens reports pointed to Circle as an indirect beneficiary, with USDC potentially used for settlement, collateral, and other activity around onchain markets. Coinbase benefits here as well through its economic exposure and close links to USDC and its role in distribution.

Traditional exchanges: limited near-term exposure

Traditional exchanges such as Nasdaq and NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange appear less exposed for now. Goldman said the new venues are unlikely to take meaningful volume from incumbent exchanges given trading caps, issuer opt-outs, and the limits of AMMs in deeper markets.

Watch for the SEC's detailed rulemaking on trading-volume limits and the number of stocks each venue can offer. Also track issuer participation rates once the opt-out window opens, and whether Coinbase builds AMM-native infrastructure or routes through Base protocols to operate a compliant venue.