Bitcoin's 44% gain in third quarter teases full-blown crypto bull run

Bitcoin is up 44% in the third quarter, its best quarterly performance since the final three months of 2024, according to CoinDesk's Daybook newsletter. The gain reverses the pattern from early this year, when bitcoin was the underperformer and stocks, gripped by AI fervour, were on a tear.

For comparison, CoinDesk reports that gold is up 8.7% over the same period, while the S&P 500 has added just 2% and the Nasdaq has gained just 2%, citing data source TradingView. Bitcoin is also outperforming individual large‑cap names: NVDA, one of the world's biggest companies, is up 11%.

Still a Long Way from the Peak

Despite the rally, CoinDesk notes that bitcoin does not necessarily look expensive relative to its own history. Prices are still down 48% from the record price of $126,000 set in October last year.

Other tokens have chalked up larger gains. CoinDesk reports that ETH, XRP, SOL, UNI and NEAR have registered gains between 40%-150% over the quarter.

On the technical side, CoinDesk reports that bitcoin closed the week ended Sept. 20 above its 50‑week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a level that has historically preceded major bull runs. Separately, prices rallied to over $84,000, topping the May high resistance line and reaching the highest point since January. CoinDesk notes that with little recent trading activity between $84,000 and $97,000, the market faces limited overhead friction if momentum holds.

SEC Decision Fuels Momentum

The initial rise was mainly driven by oversold conditions that attracted bargain hunters and a short squeeze that pushed prices higher, according to CoinDesk. More recently, a regulatory tailwind has kicked in.

Tagus Capital, quoted by CoinDesk, describes the rally as "anchored by the U.S. SEC's Sept. 17 decision to grant a temporary, five‑year innovation exemption allowing qualifying venues to facilitate secondary trading of tokenized U.S. stocks using automated market makers and blockchain liquidity pools." The firm sees Ethereum benefiting disproportionately from this regulatory opening, as it serves as the leading public blockchain for tokenized assets.

In related reporting, CoinDesk says analysts are already pointing to Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle as potential beneficiaries if more U.S. securities move onchain, though it describes the SEC's tokenized‑stock experiment as narrow for now.

Bull Market Outlook, With Caution

Some analysts are now convinced a full‑blown crypto market bull run has begun, but remain cautious, CoinDesk reports.

"In our view, this is already a bull market, but that does not rule out sudden pullbacks, so it is worth exercising heightened caution until clearer signals of a transition to active growth emerge," Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.

Kuptsikevich added that "the optimism surrounding altcoins is clearly boosting the bulls' chances in BTC, but in this case, it is better not to get ahead of oneself by rushing to buy coins."

Next Moves to Watch

CoinDesk flags two things: whether the move above the May high is sustained, which would confirm the breakout, and how the SEC's five‑year tokenized‑stock exemption develops, including whether more U.S. securities move onchain through qualifying venues.